Author Archives: tpbale

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About tpbale

I teach politics at Queen Mary University of London.

‘A by-election win for Ukip: but will it repeat the SDP’s journey?’, New Statesman, 10 October 2014.

Tarquin Fin-tim-lin-bin-whin-bim-lim-bus-stop-F’tang-F’tang-Olé-Biscuitbarrel fought a brave fight but, sadly, could only manage fifth place. Like all the other parties in the Crosby by-election of November 1981, his Monster Raving Loony Party was swept away on the tide that ushered in the … Continue reading

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‘The Tory Schism: From Robert Peel and the split over the Corn Laws to the Ukip insurgency’, New Statesman, 5 September, 2014

The Conservative backbencher Douglas Carswell’s defection to Ukip has triggered talk of a seemingly inevitable battle for the soul of the Conservative Party one that could split the Tories so badly that they end up out of power for many … Continue reading

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‘Universities lack the lobbying clout to exempt students from migration target’, The Conversation, 27 August 2014.

A recent joint report by British Future and Universities UK has criticised the Coalition for imposing unnecessary limits on the numbers of foreign students allowed into the country. Its authors say government immigration policy that attracts “the brightest and the … Continue reading

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‘Blond ambition to the fore as Boris Johnson announces he will fight 2015 general election’, The Conversation, 6 August 2014.

So the worst-kept secret in British politics is no longer a secret. Boris Johnson is on the lookout for a constituency willing to select him as their Conservative candidate at the election next May. He won’t have trouble finding one … Continue reading

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‘Flat tax? Flat chance’, Guardian, 30 July 2014.

Quizzed on remarks made by Cabinet Office minister Oliver Letwin to the rightwing thinktank Politeia, an unnamed Tory spokesman could not have made himself much clearer: “There will be no flat tax,” he said. “We oppose it. Full stop.” That … Continue reading

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‘The recovery might not deliver David Cameron a majority in 2015. Here’s why’, Telegraph, 28 July 2014

“All political history shows that the standing of a Government and its ability to hold the confidence of the electorate at a General Election depend on the success of its economic policy.” So said Labour’s Harold Wilson, who, as someone … Continue reading

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The youth of today will probably never vote Ukip. Is that great news for the Conservative Party?, Telegraph, 26 June 2014

Ukip is currently polling between 15 and 20 per cent among the electorate as a whole, but its support is seriously skewed towards older, less well-educated voters. Indeed, one of the party’s spokespeople famously blamed its failure to do anything like … Continue reading

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Why do Tories defect to UKIP?, Policy Network, 16 June 2014 (with Paul Webb)

Even if those who defect to populist parties do so initially only to register a protest vote, the emergence of ‘cultural’ as opposed to ‘class’ voting means that a sizable proportion may never return to the mainstream  The rise of … Continue reading

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‘UKIP shouldn’t be an option for any true conservative’, ConservativeHome, 29 May 2014

The Conservative Party only has itself to blame for the rise of UKIP – not because it ignored the pet peeves that drive Nigel Farage’s ‘people’s army’ but because, in the electorally-desperate early 2000s, it pushed the populist button itself … Continue reading

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‘How do you solve a problem like…Nigel? What Austria can teach the Conservatives about dealing with UKIP’, LSE British Politics and Policy Blog, 27 May 2011

If UKIP manages to do even half as well at next year’s general election as it has evidently done this time, Britain’s mainstream parties are facing nothing less than a transformation in their competitive environment. Shielded for so long by … Continue reading

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