Tim Bale’s Blog- Electoral reform for the UK? Don’t bet on it, Financial Times, 3 June 2026.
- ‘Britain’s “ungovernable” decade’, Anadolu Ajansı, 21 May 2026.
- ‘Dumping Starmer won’t reverse Labour’s fortunes [unless….]’, New Statesman, 12 May 2026
- ‘Will Nigel Farage overtake the prime minister as the U-turn leader?’, Independent, 2 April 2026
- ‘Polarised and Powerful: Party Members in British Politics’, Political Insight, 18 March 2026.
- ‘Political treachery is a dangerous art. Streeting must perfect it if he wants to wear the crown’, Daily Telegraph, 16 February 2026.
- ‘The two bloc polarisation of Britain’s voters and Party members’, LSE British Politics Blog, 2 February 2026.
- ‘Ahead of seismic local elections, what we know about Reform’s ability to put boots on the ground for the campaign’, The Conversation, 20 January 2026
- ‘Churchill’s defection didn’t kill the Tories. Robert Jenrick’s certainly won’t’, Daily Telegraph, 19 January 2026.
- ‘The ten most surprising facts from the 2024 election revealed’, The Conversation, 15 December 2025.
Author Archives: tpbale
‘Flat tax? Flat chance’, Guardian, 30 July 2014.
Quizzed on remarks made by Cabinet Office minister Oliver Letwin to the rightwing thinktank Politeia, an unnamed Tory spokesman could not have made himself much clearer: “There will be no flat tax,” he said. “We oppose it. Full stop.” That … Continue reading
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‘The recovery might not deliver David Cameron a majority in 2015. Here’s why’, Telegraph, 28 July 2014
“All political history shows that the standing of a Government and its ability to hold the confidence of the electorate at a General Election depend on the success of its economic policy.” So said Labour’s Harold Wilson, who, as someone … Continue reading
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The youth of today will probably never vote Ukip. Is that great news for the Conservative Party?, Telegraph, 26 June 2014
Ukip is currently polling between 15 and 20 per cent among the electorate as a whole, but its support is seriously skewed towards older, less well-educated voters. Indeed, one of the party’s spokespeople famously blamed its failure to do anything like … Continue reading
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Why do Tories defect to UKIP?, Policy Network, 16 June 2014 (with Paul Webb)
Even if those who defect to populist parties do so initially only to register a protest vote, the emergence of ‘cultural’ as opposed to ‘class’ voting means that a sizable proportion may never return to the mainstream The rise of … Continue reading
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‘UKIP shouldn’t be an option for any true conservative’, ConservativeHome, 29 May 2014
The Conservative Party only has itself to blame for the rise of UKIP – not because it ignored the pet peeves that drive Nigel Farage’s ‘people’s army’ but because, in the electorally-desperate early 2000s, it pushed the populist button itself … Continue reading
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Tagged conservatism, Conservative Party, Edmund Burke, Populism, UKIP
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‘How do you solve a problem like…Nigel? What Austria can teach the Conservatives about dealing with UKIP’, LSE British Politics and Policy Blog, 27 May 2011
If UKIP manages to do even half as well at next year’s general election as it has evidently done this time, Britain’s mainstream parties are facing nothing less than a transformation in their competitive environment. Shielded for so long by … Continue reading
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Tagged Austria, ÖVP, Conservative Party, FPÖ, Freedom Party, radical right wing populist, UK, UKIP
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David Cameron’s next EU challenge: renegotiation, Telegraph, 26 May 2014
Tory MPs may have agreed not to panic in the light of Ukip’s big win, but that doesn’t mean David Cameron isn’t going to come under a huge amount of pressure from them in the coming days and weeks to do … Continue reading
The Conservatives will face many challenges after the votes are counted in the European Parliament election, LSE British Politics and Policy Blog, 9 May 2014
To say the Tories are unlikely to do as well in May 2014 as they did in June 2009 is a bit of an understatement. Five years ago they topped the poll, getting just under 4.2 million votes or nearly … Continue reading
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Tagged Alternative für Deutschland, Cameron, Conservative Party, ECR, Elections, European Parliament, MEPs, Merkel
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‘Are Tory activists weeding out “moderate” MPs?’, Political Studies Association Blog, 6 March, 2014 (with Paul Webb)
When two Conservative MPs were deselected in rapid succession by their local constituency associations, it marked to some a welcome assertion of grassroots rights and power. To others, it was no such thing. Instead the move was an inevitable consequence of … Continue reading
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Tagged Anne McIntosh, Conservative Party, deselection, grassroots, MPs, parliamentary candidates, selection, Tim Yeo, Tory
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‘David Cameron shouldn’t bank on Angela Merkel to sort out his EU issues’ Guardian, 26 February, 2014
Angela Merkel and David Cameron didn’t get off to the greatest of starts: one of his earliest decisions as party leader was to pull Conservative MEPs out of Merkel’s party’s group in the European parliament. But their relationship seems to have … Continue reading
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Tagged Britain. Conservatism, Cameron, CDU, Christian Democracy, Christian Democrats, Conservative Party, EU, Germany, Merkel
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