Tim Bale’s Blog- ‘Labour leadership race: survey shows Rebecca Long-Bailey only just scrapes majority among Momentum members’ (with Paul Webb), The Conversation, 15 January 2020.
- ‘Remember: the average Labour member isn’t as political as you think’, New Statesman, 13 January 2020.
- ‘Keir Starmer, Brexit and the Labour leadership contest’, 10 January 2020.
- ‘Reflections on releasing political polling results into the big wide world’, QMUL Blog, 3 January 2020
- ‘Will the new Tory intake help to build a more progressive party? Don’t count on it’, Guardian, 19 December 2019.
- ‘The real Boris Johnson: one-nation Tory or raging populist?’, Observer, 15 December 2019.
- ‘Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn are set to disappoint their supporters’, Financial Times, 7 December 2019.
- ‘Brexit shows how the populist right can be powerful without winning office’, Washington Post, 2 December 2019.
- ‘Who is winning the ground war in London?’ (with Philip Cowley), Times, 6 December 2019.
- ‘Why is the Conservative Party so good at winning?’, Bloomberg, 18 November 2019.
Monthly Archives: April 2015
‘UKIP should not be written off yet’, Financial Times, 24 April 2015
The narrative says one thing but the numbers say another. Contrary to common wisdom, the UK Independence party — and its leader — seem to be holding up fairly well under fire. There are plenty of accounts of the campaign … Continue reading
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Tagged Conservatives, David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Labour, Nigel Farage, UKIP
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‘General Election: the Parallels with 1970’s Shock Result’, Financial Times, 17 April 2015
Human beings are hard-wired to search for patterns and parallels — especially those that seem to confirm their existing prejudices. Hardly surprising, then, that politicians are so fond of comparisons between elections past and present, and so inclined to pick … Continue reading
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Tagged 1970 General Election, Conservatives, David Cameron, Ed Miliband, Harold Wilson, Labour, Ted Heath
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‘UK general election: ‘Happy Warrior’ confronts bomber pilot’, Financial Times, 10 April 2015
What constitutes a good week for a party leader during an election campaign depends very much on which leader you are talking about, as well as the kind of campaign they have made up their mind to fight. David Cameron, … Continue reading
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‘The Napoleonic truth about coalitions: getting most seats doesn’t mean you win’, Guardian, 6 April 2015
Imagine this. It’s Sunday 18 June 1815 near a little-known place called Waterloo. Battle lines are drawn when word comes down the line that Napoleon Bonaparte is to be declared the winner without a shot being fired. He, after all, … Continue reading
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‘Do party leaders really matter?’, FT, 3 April 2015
As TV debate postmortems continue into the weekend, we would do well to step back and ask ourselves a simple question — one that’s far more fundamental than who won and who lost on Thursday night. Do party leaders really … Continue reading
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‘An over-chillaxed David Cameron drops a brick with his bombshell’, FT, 24 March 2015
Either David Cameron is one of the more unusual men ever to have become British prime minister — one of those rare birds in politics (the last was Stanley Baldwin back in 1937) who quit while they are genuinely ahead … Continue reading
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Tagged Boris Johnson, Conservative Party, David Cameron, George Osborne, leader, Prime Minister, Theresa May, Tories
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‘The Labour Campaign, 2015: some educated guesses’, Political Studies Association Media Briefing, 24 March 2015
Labour will: Focus as much as possible on measures contained in three of its five rather vague pledges – particularly on its popular (if not necessarily workable or sensible) offers on university tuition fees (a heat seeking missile aimed directly … Continue reading
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