Monthly Archives: July 2014

‘The recovery might not deliver David Cameron a majority in 2015. Here’s why’, Telegraph, 28 July 2014

“All political history shows that the standing of a Government and its ability to hold the confidence of the electorate at a General Election depend on the success of its economic policy.” So said Labour’s Harold Wilson, who, as someone … Continue reading


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The youth of today will probably never vote Ukip. Is that great news for the Conservative Party?, Telegraph, 26 June 2014

Ukip is currently polling between 15 and 20 per cent among the electorate as a whole, but its support is seriously skewed towards older, less well-educated voters. Indeed, one of the party’s spokespeople famously blamed its failure to do anything like … Continue reading

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Why do Tories defect to UKIP?, Policy Network, 16 June 2014 (with Paul Webb)

Even if those who defect to populist parties do so initially only to register a protest vote, the emergence of ‘cultural’ as opposed to ‘class’ voting means that a sizable proportion may never return to the mainstream  The rise of … Continue reading

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