Author Archives: tpbale

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About tpbale

I teach politics at Queen Mary University of London.

‘Brexit and the “Merkel Myth”‘ (with Karl Pike), UK in a Changing Europe, 27 October 2023

Criticising prime minister Theresa May’s approach to Brexit, Nick Clegg confessed that he’d always assumed May would jump on a plane in the dead of night without telling the press, go to Berlin, have a nice, quiet sauerkraut dinner with Angela Merkel, … Continue reading →

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‘Cricket fan Rishi should shun Right and hold out for a Geoff Boycott route to unlikely victory’, Evening Standard, 25 October 2023

Rishi Sunak is no magician. Only a preternaturally talented politician could persuade voters that, after 13 long and not particularly successful years in office, his party represents the change they’re crying out for. That was the trick the Prime Minister tried to pull … Continue reading →

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‘Plenty of time for Keir Starmer’s sheen to fade’, Financial Times, 16 October 2023

There will not be a UK general election tomorrow, however much political pollsters prod voters to say how they would vote in one. But if there were, even the most optimistic Conservative would have to concede that Labour would win, … Continue reading →

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‘Brexit and the Merkel Myth’ (with Karl Pike), The Loop, 29 September 2023

Special expectations In 2014, on a visit to London, Angela Merkel addressed the Houses of Parliament. The then German Chancellor recognised in her remarks that British political actors seemed to have ‘very special expectations’ regarding her speech. Some people, Merkel said, seemed … Continue reading →

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‘The Tony Blair Rock Opera features bagpipes, Lady Macbeth and a wrestling match with Gordon Brown’, The Conversation, 9 October 2023

If you’re looking for subtlety and sophistication, Harry Hill and Steve Brown’s Tony! The Tony Blair Rock Opera is probably not for you. It starts – literally – with a bang and careens through a hectic hour and a half of high-energy … Continue reading →

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‘Signal vs Noise at Tory Party Conference’, UK in a Changing Europe, 6 October 2023

It’s over ten years since American electoral guru Nate Silver reminded us that we need to forget about the stuff that only seems important and focus on what really matters – to distinguish, as the title of his best-selling book put it, between the signal and the … Continue reading →

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‘Margaret Thatcher’s part in Liz Truss’s spectacular downfall’, The Independent, 5 September 2023

Liz Truss has been called many things – many of them unprintable. Given what she did to the country’s economy, people’s mortgage repayments and the Tories’ poll ratings, that’s hardly surprising. But it still shouldn’t let her party off the hook. … Continue reading →

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‘Advocates of proportional representation need to manage their expectations – just look at New Zealand’, politics.co.uk, 6 October 2023.

Unless the Conservatives pull off the mother of all comebacks between now and next year, it looks increasingly likely that Keir Starmer will be Britain’s next prime minister.  Whether he’ll move into Number Ten with a working majority, however, is … Continue reading →

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‘State of the Conservative Party’, The House Magazine, 30 August 2023

According to Enoch Powell, “There is one thing you can be sure of with the Conservative Party, before anything else – they have a grand sense of where the votes are.” Given the government’s evident determination to double down on … Continue reading →

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‘Republicans seem to think their time is coming – they will be disappointed’, The i, 7 July 2023.

Ardent fans of the British monarchy needn’t lose any sleep at the sight of a few republican protesters making their feelings known during the King’s recent progress through the streets of Scotland’s capital city, Edinburgh. Even the fact that the Scottish National Party’s new … Continue reading →

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