Author Archives: tpbale

It’s over ten years since American electoral guru Nate Silver reminded us that we need to forget about the stuff that only seems important and focus on what really matters – to distinguish, as the title of his best-selling book put it, between the signal and the … Continue reading →

Liz Truss has been called many things – many of them unprintable. Given what she did to the country’s economy, people’s mortgage repayments and the Tories’ poll ratings, that’s hardly surprising. But it still shouldn’t let her party off the hook. … Continue reading →

Unless the Conservatives pull off the mother of all comebacks between now and next year, it looks increasingly likely that Keir Starmer will be Britain’s next prime minister.  Whether he’ll move into Number Ten with a working majority, however, is … Continue reading →

According to Enoch Powell, “There is one thing you can be sure of with the Conservative Party, before anything else – they have a grand sense of where the votes are.” Given the government’s evident determination to double down on … Continue reading →

Ardent fans of the British monarchy needn’t lose any sleep at the sight of a few republican protesters making their feelings known during the King’s recent progress through the streets of Scotland’s capital city, Edinburgh. Even the fact that the Scottish National Party’s new … Continue reading →

July 20 is shaping up to be something of a Super Thursday — unless you’re Rishi Sunak. Although nothing’s certain in politics these days, there’s a serious possibility that the Tories could lose all three by-elections scheduled to take place … Continue reading →

George Orwell’s memorable take on Dickens, “rotten architecture, but wonderful gargoyles”, didn’t really fit the Conservatives – until recently, that is. For most of its history, the party – run by relatively pragmatic leaders unconstrained by rank-and-file members and fuelled by no-questions-asked donations … Continue reading →

Ever since Boris Johnson announced he would be resigning his seat in the House of Commons, national newspapers have been full of stories about a ‘Tory civil war’. Indeed, that phrase has cropped up nearly as often in the week … Continue reading →

Judging by the polls and by May’s local elections, things aren’t looking too clever for the Conservatives. No surprise, then, that talk is already turning to what will happen to them should they go down to nationwide defeat in 2024, with … Continue reading →

The Conservative party is clearly in trouble. Admittedly, opinion polls are snapshots, not predictions, but few pundits would argue Rishi Sunak will find it easy to overturn Labour’s double digit lead in the next election, especially after the Tories’ poor … Continue reading →