Who knows what Nigel Farage is really up to? Apart from Farage himself, that is, though he sometimes seems to have trouble making his mind up. But now he has, what are we to make of his decision not to stand for Reform UK in July’s general election?

In a statement posted on X, Farage declared: “I will do my bit to help in the campaign, but it is not the right time for me to go any further than that.” It was, however, apparently the right time for him to focus his energy across the pond. “Important though the general election is,” he said, “the contest in the United States of America on November 5 has huge global significance.” Accordingly, he continued, “I intend to help with the grassroots campaign in the USA in any way I can.”

It would seem the man who, in Brexiteers’ eyes, helped “give them their country back”, has clearly decided, notwithstanding the fact that, as he puts it, “only Reform have the radical agenda that is needed to end decline” in the UK, the UK (and its decline) isn’t now his main priority.

In fairness, Farage has cancelled his GB News show in the run-up to the general election, apparently so he can help the Reform campaign. Yet his detractors will no doubt note that the opportunities offered by teaming up with Donald Trump between now and November are far more lucrative than those available to him on home soil.

A more charitable view is that Farage really does believe that the world — and by implication Britain — is under threat from the increasingly broad catch-all of “globalism”. To stay and fight it on this small island would be pointless, the argument runs. Better, instead, to confront it alongside the guy with the best chance of putting it to the sword, and if that means being accused of deserting his troops to run away to the MAGA circus, then so be it.

Really, the truth may lie somewhere in between. And there may, in any case, have been other factors bearing on his decision — some short-term, some long-term. In the short-term, Farage, who is no fool, has presumably (and probably wisely given its poor showing in recent local and by-elections) come to the conclusion that Reform is unlikely to make that big a splash in July’s snap contest, and certainly not one big enough to give him even the remotest chance of finally taking a seat in the House of Commons.

His claim on GB News that he’d “put in place some preparations to launch [a campaign] next week” but had been “wrong-footed” by Sunak’s surprise announcement did little either to clarify his rationale or to convince anyone that he has as much confidence in Reform’s current leader, Richard Tice. Perhaps this shouldn’t surprise us, given that the best excuse Tice could come up with for Farage’s failure to step up was that his standing “involves threats to his life”.

But Farage may also be thinking long-term. While he has pooh-poohed suggestions that he might one day re-join the Conservative Party after leaving it in the early Nineties, it remains a possibility no-one should discount. Indeed, it’s still something of a dream for those who believe that the scourge of progressive liberalism can only be fought by “uniting the Right” behind a genuine (as opposed to an ersatz) populist. Were Farage to have gone full-throttle anti-Tory over the next six weeks, he would surely have damaged his chances of convincing any doubtful Conservatives to take a chance on him as their leader in a few years’ time.

That doesn’t mean, of course, that Farage will go AWOL in the campaign, or that Reform is no longer capable of costing the Conservatives a fair few seats on 4 July. But, whatever the reasons behind his decision not to lead his party’s charge, Tory high command will be breathing a small sigh of relief — for now at least.

Originally published at https://unherd.com/newsroom/dont-count-nigel-farage-out-just-yet/